History Won't Repeat Itself

With home prices softening and the market returning to a more normal status, some “experts” are concerned that we may be looking at a housing crash. But, just a little investigation will tell you that today’s market is quite different from the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are three key metrics from industry resource Keeping Current Matters (KCM) that explain why history won’t repeat itself.

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

After using these housing metrics comparing today’s market to that of the last decade, it’s clear that the they’re nothing alike.

Here on Cape, the inventory of available homes for sale remains below traditional levels making it a great time for anyone thinking about selling to do so.

We are happy to meet with you and discuss your options as well as the best strategy for selling your home as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Just contact us via the comment section of call 508-568-8191.

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We’re excited to share with you that Mari has been elected to the Board of Director of the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors and the Cape Cod & Islands Multiple Listing Service. She’ll be representing the Upper Cape. Her term is through 2020.

Board President Joe Arno, William Raveis RE, says that “Mari brings years of real estate knowledge and trust to the Board. Well respected among her peers, her leadership is sure to make a difference.”

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We’ve been keeping you updated on the progress of our kitchen renovation. The project started right after Thanksgiving and was finally completed last Friday.

We’re happy to share with you the final results.

Mari’s KItchen Reno; The Final Episode

Enjoy your week.

Mari and Hank